Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: http://hdl.handle.net/10419/200065
Authors: 
Mandler, Martin
Scharnagl, Michael
Year of Publication: 
2019
Series/Report no.: 
Bundesbank Discussion Paper 22/2019
Abstract: 
We analyse the cross-country dimension of financial cycles by studying cyclical co-movements in credit, house prices, equity prices and interest rates across the G7 economies. We use wavelet-based statistics to assess at which frequencies cyclical fluctuations and their crosscountry co-movements are important and how these change over time. We show cycles in interest rates and equity prices to be at least as synchronised as cycles in real GDP while cycles in credit and house prices are less synchronised. As a result, cross-country common cycles in equity prices and long-term interest rates account for a larger share of the volatility of these variables at the country level than common cycles in credit aggregates and house prices. A cluster analysis shows a high degree of similarity in the spectral characteristics of cycles in interest rates and equity prices across all countries but less similarities for cycles in credit and house price. For credit and house price cycles country-specific developments turn out to be more important than the common cross-country cycles.
Subjects: 
financial cycles
wavelet analysis
cluster analysis
cross-country synchronisation
JEL: 
C32
C38
E44
E51
ISBN: 
978-3-95729-598-9
Document Type: 
Working Paper

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