Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: http://hdl.handle.net/10419/172953
Authors: 
Zaklan, Aleksandar
Ansari, Dawud
Kemfert, Claudia
Year of Publication: 
2017
Citation: 
[Journal:] DIW Economic Bulletin [ISSN:] 2192-7219 [Volume:] 7 [Year:] 2017 [Issue:] 51/52 [Pages:] 567-573
Abstract: 
In this study, we report on the current state of the international market for crude oil. The market data we analyzed indicate that competition has intensified as a result of the now firmly-established shale oil extraction industry in the U.S. Model-based simulations also show that supply-side shifts should only have moderate price effects. This applies to both an expansion in U.S. shale oil production and a disruption of production in OPEC countries. Market data and simulations indicate that the crude oil market is currently in a new equilibrium that appears to be relatively robust in the short term. In the absence of further shocks, we can continue to expect a moderate price level for crude oil in the short term with corresponding implications for economic and climate policy.
Subjects: 
crude oil markets
equilibrium modeling
shale oil
tight oil
OPEC
JEL: 
C63
Q31
Q35
Q41
Q43
Document Type: 
Article

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