Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: http://hdl.handle.net/10419/159900
Authors: 
Bontempi, Maria Elena
Golinelli, Roberto
Squadrani, Matteo
Year of Publication: 
2016
Series/Report no.: 
Quaderni - Working Paper DSE 1062
Abstract: 
The preliminary evidence in the literature suggests that changes in uncertainty have a role in shaping the U.S. economic cycle. But what is effectively measured by the different available indicators of uncertainty still remains an "uncertain" issue. This paper has two aims: (i) to introduce a new uncertainty indicator (GT) based on Internet searches; and (ii) to compare the main features and the macroeconomic effects of alternative measures of uncertainty, including our own. Results suggest that GT shocks embody timely information about people's perception of uncertainty and, in some cases, earlier than other indexes. Furthermore, the effect of uncertainty shocks on output is more influenced by parameter breaks due to insample events than by model specification. The consequence is that an all-comprehensive indicator able to weight different sources of uncertainty is preferable.
JEL: 
D80
E32
E27
E37
C32
Persistent Identifier of the first edition: 
Creative Commons License: 
https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/3.0/
Document Type: 
Working Paper

Files in This Item:
File
Size
751.65 kB





Items in EconStor are protected by copyright, with all rights reserved, unless otherwise indicated.