Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: http://hdl.handle.net/10419/146082
Authors: 
Beckmann, Klaus
Gattke, Susan
Lechner, Anja
Reimer, Lennart
Year of Publication: 
2016
Series/Report no.: 
Working Paper Series, Helmut Schmidt University Hamburg, Department of Economics 162
Abstract: 
We review, and extend, one of the classic dynamic models of conflict in economics by Richardson (1919) and Boulding (1962). Restrictions on parameters are relaxed to account for alliances and for peace-keeping, yielding new dynamic patterns of conflict. In addition, we explore an incrementalist version of the model as well as a stochastic one and show how this affects its theoretical stability properties. Using Monte Carlo techniques as well as time series analyses based on GDELT data (for the Ethiopian-Eritreian war, 1998-2000), we also assess the empirical usefulness of the model. It turns out that the simulations fail to converge in a large number of cases, and that one important prediction of the model is not borne out by the data. We therefore conclude that the Boulding-Richardson equations are of limited use for modelling (de-)escalation in dynamic conflict.
Subjects: 
conflict dynamicy
patterns of conflict
GDELT
time series
differential equations
JEL: 
B25
D74
Document Type: 
Working Paper

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