Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: http://hdl.handle.net/10419/145373
Authors: 
Verdolini, Elena
Anadón, Laura Diaz
Baker, Erin
Bosetti, Valentina
Reis, Lara Aleluia
Year of Publication: 
2016
Series/Report no.: 
Nota di Lavoro, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei 47.2016
Abstract: 
Expert elicitation is a process for eliciting subjective probability distributions from experts about items of interest to decision makers. These methods have been increasingly applied in the energy domain to collect information on the future cost and performance of specific energy technologies and the associated uncertainty. This article reviews the existing expert elicitations on energy technologies with three main objectives: (1) to provide insights on expert elicitation methods and how they compare/complement other approaches to inform public energy decision making; (2) to review all recent elicitation exercises about future technology costs; and (3) to discuss the main results from these expert elicitations, in terms of implied rates of cost reduction and the role of R&D investments in shaping these reductions, and compare it with insights from backward looking approaches. We argue that the emergence of data on future energy costs through expert elicitations provides the opportunity for more transparent and robust analyses incorporating technical uncertainty to assess energy and climate change mitigation policies.
Subjects: 
Energy Technologies
R&D Investments
Expert Elicitations
Uncertainty
JEL: 
Q5
Q55
Document Type: 
Working Paper

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