Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: http://hdl.handle.net/10419/141916
Authors: 
Ritter, Nolan
Vance, Colin
Year of Publication: 
2013
Citation: 
[Journal:] Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice [ISSN:] 0965-8564 [Volume:] 50 [Pages:] 74-85
Abstract: 
Drawing on household data from Germany, this study econometrically analyzes the determinants of automobile ownership, focusing specifically on the extent to which decreases in family size translate into changes in the number of cars at the national level. Beyond modeling several variables over which policy makers have direct leverage, including the proximity of public transit, fuel prices and land use density, the analysis uses the estimated coefficients from a multinomial logit model to simulate car ownership rates under alternative scenarios pertaining to demographic change and other socio-economic variables. Our baseline scenario predicts continued increases in the number of cars despite decreases in population, a trend that is attributed to continued increases in household income.
Subjects: 
Car ownership
Demographic change
Germany
Multinomial logit
Simulation
Persistent Identifier of the first edition: 
Creative Commons License: 
https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/
Document Type: 
Article

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