Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: http://hdl.handle.net/10419/107384
Authors: 
Bauer, Michael D.
Rudebusch, Glenn D.
Year of Publication: 
2015
Series/Report no.: 
CESifo Working Paper 5187
Abstract: 
Previous macro-finance term structure models (MTSMs) imply that macroeconomic state variables are spanned by (i.e., perfectly correlated with) model-implied bond yields. However, this theoretical implication appears inconsistent with regressions showing that much macroeconomic variation is unspanned and that the unspanned variation helps forecast excess bond returns and future macroeconomic fluctuations. We resolve this contradiction—or “spanning puzzle”—by reconciling spanned MTSMs with the regression evidence, thus salvaging the previous macro-finance literature. Furthermore, we statistically reject “unspanned” MTSMs, which are an alternative resolution of the spanning puzzle, and show that their knife-edge restrictions are economically unimportant for determining term premia.
Subjects: 
yield curve
term structure models
macro-finance
unspanned macro risks
monetary policy
JEL: 
E43
E44
E52
Document Type: 
Working Paper

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