Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: https://hdl.handle.net/10419/106634 
Year of Publication: 
2014
Series/Report no.: 
BGPE Discussion Paper No. 154
Publisher: 
Friedrich-Alexander-Universität Erlangen-Nürnberg, Bavarian Graduate Program in Economics (BGPE), Nürnberg
Abstract: 
There is still some doubt about those economic variables that really matter for the FED's decisions. In comparison to other estimations, this study uses the approach of Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA). The estimations show that over the long run inflation, unemployment rates, and long-term interest rates are the crucial variables in explaining the Federal Funds Rate. In the other two estimation samples, also the federal deficit and M2 were of relevance. In addition, we present the best models in more detail. Finally, a model average is constructed via BMA. The model average substantially outperforms a simple Taylor rule.
Subjects: 
FED
Monetary Policy Reaction Functions
Model Uncertainty
Bayesian Model Averaging
JEL: 
E43
E52
E58
Document Type: 
Working Paper

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