Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: http://hdl.handle.net/10419/103924
Authors: 
Bleile, Jörg
Year of Publication: 
2014
Series/Report no.: 
Working Papers, Center for Mathematical Economics 507
Abstract: 
We provide an axiomatic approach to a belief formation process in an informational environment characterized by limited, heterogenous and diff erently precise information. For a list of previously observed cases an agent needs to express her belief by assigning probabilities to possible outcomes. Different numbers of observations of a particular case give rise to varying precision levels associated to the pieces of information. Different precise information affects the cautiousness and confi dence with which agents form estimations. We modify the Concatenation axiom introduced in Billot, Gilboa, Samet and Schmeidler (BGSS) (Econometrica, 2005) in a way to capture the impact of precision and its related perceptional e ects, while still keeping its normative appealing spirit. We obtain a representation of a belief as a weighted sum of estimates induced by past cases. The estimates are affected by cautiousness and confidence considerations depending on the precision of the underlying observed information, which generalizes BGSS. The weights are determined by frequencies of the observed cases and their similarities with the problem under consideration.
Subjects: 
Belief formation
prior
relative frequencies
case-based reasoning
similarity precision
ambiguity
learning
imagination
confidence
cautiousness
JEL: 
D01
D81
D83
Persistent Identifier of the first edition: 
Document Type: 
Working Paper

Files in This Item:
File
Size





Items in EconStor are protected by copyright, with all rights reserved, unless otherwise indicated.