Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: http://hdl.handle.net/10419/102163
Authors: 
Caruso, Raul
Petrarca, Ilaria
Ricciuti, Roberto
Year of Publication: 
2014
Series/Report no.: 
CESifo Working Paper 4802
Abstract: 
We empirically investigate the existence of spatial autocorrelation between military dictatorships in Sub-Saharan Africa from 1977 through 2007. We apply a Bayesian SAR probit regression, extended to a pooled model. We find a robust and positive spatial autocorrelation coefficient, which shows a spatial concentration of military autocracies. In particular, in the aftermath of Cold War military regimes cluster in the central region. Among covariates, interestingly, foreign aid shows a positive association with military regimes during the Cold War while it turns to exhibit a negative association after 1989. With regard to other economic covariates, we find that: a) there is a negative association between GDP per capita and the existence of a military autocracy; b) a larger manufacturing sector is associated with a smaller probability of a military rule; c) a larger mining sector is associated with a higher likelihood of military rules; d) trade openness reduces the likelihood of militarization.
Subjects: 
military dictatorship
Sub-Saharan Africa
Bayesian SAR probit model
spatial autocorrelation
diffusion
concentration
JEL: 
C21
H11
N47
Document Type: 
Working Paper

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