Knopf, Brigitte Chen, Yen-Heng Henry De Cian, Enrica Förster, Hannah Kanudia, Amit Karkatsouli, Ioanna Keppo, Ilkka Koljonen, Tiina Schumacher, Katja van Vuuren, Detlef
Year of Publication:
Nota di Lavoro, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei 15.2014
The Energy Modeling Forum 28 (EMF28) study systematically explores the energy system transition required to meet the European goal of reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by 80% by 2050. The 80% scenario is compared to a reference case that aims to achieve a 40% GHG reduction target. The paper investigates mitigation strategies beyond 2020 and the interplay between different decarbonization options. The models present different technology pathways for the decarbonization of Europe, but a common finding across the scenarios and models is the prominent role of energy efficiency and renewable energy sources. In particular, wind power and bioenergy increase considerably beyond current deployment levels. Up to 2030, the transformation strategies are similar across all models and for both levels of emission reduction. However, mitigation becomes more challenging after 2040. With some exceptions, our analysis agrees with the main findings of the Energy Roadmap 2050 presented by the European Commission.
European Decarbonisation Mitigation Scenarios Model Comparison Climate Change EU Energy Roadmap 2050