Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: http://hdl.handle.net/10419/100139
Authors: 
Murad, Zahra
Sefton, Martin
Starmer, Chris
Year of Publication: 
2014
Series/Report no.: 
CeDEx Discussion Paper Series 2014-05
Abstract: 
We examine confidence in own absolute performance using two elicitation procedures: selfreported (non-incentivised) confidence and an incentivised procedure that elicits the certainty equivalent of a bet based on performance. The former procedure reproduces the "hard-easy effect" (overconfidence in easy tasks and underconfidence in hard tasks) found in a large number of studies using non-incentivised self-reports. The latter procedure produces general underconfidence, which is somewhat reduced when we filter out the effects of risk attitudes. However, even after controlling for risk attitudes our incentivised procedure leads to significant underconfidence, and does not lead to better calibration between confidence and performance than non-incentivised self-reports. Finally, we find that self-reported confidence correlates significantly with features of individual risk attitudes including parameters of individual probability weighting.
Subjects: 
Overconfidence
Underconfidence
Experiment
Risk Preferences
JEL: 
C91
D81
Document Type: 
Working Paper

Files in This Item:
File
Size
822.08 kB





Items in EconStor are protected by copyright, with all rights reserved, unless otherwise indicated.