Memorandum, Department of Economics, University of Oslo 20/2012
We estimate the quantitative importance of labour market institutions for equilibrium unemployment in OECD. The empirical equation for unemployment is based on the solution of a dynamic macroeconomic model where wages and prices are jointly determined with unemployment. Compared to existing studies, the theoretical model implies a higher order dynamics in the nal equation for unemployment and the sample has more variation in unemployment and in institutions. Finally, we incorporate objectively and automatically selected indicators for structural breaks. We nd that institutional variables have statistical signi cance, but that these variables account for relatively little of the overall change in the OECD average unemployment rate. The shocks to the economy have been more important for the evolution in the actual average unemployment rate.
OECD area unemployment dynamics structural breaks equilibrium unemployment wage setting NAIRU labour market institutions automatic variable selection