Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: http://hdl.handle.net/10419/81484
Authors: 
Mauritzen, Johannes
Year of Publication: 
2013
Series/Report no.: 
IFN Working Paper 969
Abstract: 
An important challenge facing many deregulated electricity markets is dealing with the increasing penetration of intermittent generation. Simulation studies have pointed to the advantages of trading closer to real-time with large amounts of intermittent generation. Using Danish data, I show that, as expected, shortfalls increase the probability of trade on the shortterm market. But in the period studied between 2010 and 2012 surpluses are shown to decrease the probability of trade. This unexpected result is likely explained by wind power policies that discourages trading on Elbas and leads to unnecessarily high balancing costs. I use a rolling-windows regression to support this claim.
Subjects: 
Wind power
Short-term markets
Forecasting error
JEL: 
Q42
Q48
Document Type: 
Working Paper

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