Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: http://hdl.handle.net/10419/79925
Authors: 
Jung, Alexander
El-Shagi, Makram
Giesen, Sebastian
Year of Publication: 
2013
Series/Report no.: 
Beiträge zur Jahrestagung des Vereins für Socialpolitik 2013: Wettbewerbspolitik und Regulierung in einer globalen Wirtschaftsordnung - Session: Business Cycles I A02-V2
Abstract: 
This paper assesses the relative performance of central bank staff forecasts and of private forecasters for inflation and output. We show that the Federal Reserve (Fed), and less so the European Central Bank (ECB), has a significant information advantage concerning inflation and output forecasts. Using recently developed tests for conditional predictive ability and forecast stability for the US, we find that the driving forces behind the narrowing of the information advantage of Greenbook forecasts have coincided with the Great Moderation.
JEL: 
C53
E37
E52
Document Type: 
Conference Paper

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