Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: http://hdl.handle.net/10419/74109
Authors: 
Roson, Roberto
Calzadilla, Alvaro
Pauli, Francesco
Year of Publication: 
2006
Series/Report no.: 
Nota di Lavoro, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei 44.2006
Abstract: 
We use a general equilibrium model of the world economy, and a regional economic growth model, to assess the economic implications of vulnerability from extreme meteorological events, induced by the climate change. In particular, we first consider the impact of climate change on ENSO and NAO oceanic oscillations and, subsequently, the implied variation on regional expected damages. We found that expected damages from extreme events are increasing in the United States, Europe and Russia, and Russia, and decreasing in energy exporting countries. Two economic implications are taken into account: (1) short-term impacts, due to changes in the demand structure, generated by higher/lower precautionary saving, and (2) variations in regional economic growth paths. We found that indirect short-term effects (variations in savings due to higher or lower likelihood of natural disasters) can have an impact on regional economics, whose order of magnitude is comparable to the one of direct damages. On the other hand, we highlight that higher vulnerability from extreme events translates into higher volatility in the economic growth path, and vice versa.
Subjects: 
Climate Change
Extreme Events
Computable General Equilibrium Models
Precautionary Savings
Economic Growth
JEL: 
D58
D91
Q54
Document Type: 
Working Paper

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