Bitte verwenden Sie diesen Link, um diese Publikation zu zitieren, oder auf sie als Internetquelle zu verweisen: http://hdl.handle.net/10419/71301
Autoren: 
D'Agostino, Antonello
McQuinn, Kieran
Whelan, Karl
Datum: 
2010
Schriftenreihe/Nr.: 
UCD Centre for Economic Research Working Paper Series No. WP10/12
Zusammenfassung: 
In any dataset with individual forecasts of economic variables, some forecasters will perform better than others. However, it is possible that these ex post differences reflect sampling variation and thus overstate the ex ante differences between forecasters. In this paper, we present a simple test of the null hypothesis that all forecasters in the US Survey of Professional Forecasters have equal ability. We construct a test statistic that reflects both the relative and absolute performance of the forecaster and use bootstrap techniques to compare the empirical results with the equivalents obtained under the null hypothesis of equal forecaster ability. Results suggests limited evidence for the idea that the best forecasters are actually innately better than others, though there is evidence that a relatively small group of forecasters perform very poorly.
Schlagwörter: 
Forecasting
Bootstrap
JEL: 
C53
E27
E37
Persistent Identifier der Erstveröffentlichung: 
Dokumentart: 
Working Paper

Datei(en):
Datei
Größe
485.38 kB





Publikationen in EconStor sind urheberrechtlich geschützt.