Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: http://hdl.handle.net/10419/68498
Authors: 
Polasek, Wolfgang
Year of Publication: 
2012
Series/Report no.: 
Economics Series, Institute for Advanced Studies 284
Abstract: 
Beer sales in Germany are confronted for several years with a shrinking market share in the market of alcoholic beverages. I use the approach of sales response function (SRF) models as in Polasek and Baier (2010) and adapt it to time series observation of beer sales for simultaneous estimation. I propose a new class of growth sales (gSRF) models having endogenous and exogenous variables as in Polasek (2011) together with marketing efforts that follow a sustained growth allocation principle. This approach allows to model growth rates in markets that are exposed to fierce competition and where marketing efforts cannot be evaluated directly. The class of gSRF models has the property that it models supply (i.e. marketing efforts) and demand factors jointly in a log-linear regression model that are correlated over time. The estimated model can explain the relative success of marketing expenditures for the shrinking beer market in the period 1999-2010.
Subjects: 
Sales response functions (SRF)
marketing budget models
MCMC estimation
beer consumption
optimal budget allocation
JEL: 
C11
C15
C52
E17
R12
Document Type: 
Working Paper

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