Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: http://hdl.handle.net/10419/68443
Authors: 
Landau, Katja
Klasen, Stephan
Zucchini, Walter
Year of Publication: 
2012
Series/Report no.: 
SOEPpapers on Multidisciplinary Panel Data Research 481
Abstract: 
We investigate the accuracy of ex ante assessments of vulnerability to income poverty using cross-sectional data and panel data. We use long-term panel data from Germany and apply different regression models, based on household covariates and previous-year equivalence income, to classify a household as vulnerable or not. Predictive performance is assessed using the Receiver Operating Characteristics (ROC), which takes account of false positive as well as true positive rates. Estimates based on cross-sectional data are much less accurate than those based on panel data, but for Germany, the accuracy of vulnerability predictions is limited even when panel data are used. In part this low accuracy is due to low poverty incidence and high mobility in and out of poverty.
Subjects: 
vulnerability
poverty
ROC
German panel data
JEL: 
C23
C52
I32
O29
Document Type: 
Working Paper

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