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Autor:innen: 
Herzer, Dierk
Strulik, Holger
Vollmer, Sebastian
Datum: 
2010
Schriftenreihe/Nr.: 
Diskussionsbeitrag No. 456
Verlag: 
Leibniz Universität Hannover, Wirtschaftswissenschaftliche Fakultät, Hannover
Zusammenfassung: 
We examine the long-run relationship between fertility, mortality, and income using panel cointegration techniques and the available data for the last century. Our main result is that mortality changes and growth of income per capita account for a major part of the fertility change characterizing the demographic transition. The change of mortality alone, however, is insufficient to explain the secular decline of population growth. For that interaction of mortality and income growth is needed. These results are robust against alternative estimation methods, potential outliers, sample selection, different measures of mortality, and the sample period. In addition, our causality tests suggest that fertility is both endogenous and exogenous. In particular, we find that an increase of fertility reduces growth of income per capita.
Schlagwörter: 
Fertility
mortality
economic development
panel cointegration
JEL: 
J1
J13
C23
Dokumentart: 
Working Paper

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