Staff Report, Federal Reserve Bank of New York 265
Hansen and Jagannathan (1997) have developed two measures of pricing errors for asset pricing models: the maximum pricing error in all static portfolios of the test assets and the maximum pricing error in all contingent claims of the assets. In this paper, we develop simulation-based Bayesian inference for these measures. While the literature reports that the time-varying extensions substantially reduce pricing errors of classic models on the standard test assets, our analysis shows that the reduction is much smaller based on the second measure. Those time-varying models have pricing errors on the contingent claims of the test assets because their stochastic discount factors are often negative and admit arbitrage opportunities.
Bayesian inference, asset pricing, pricing errors, model comparison, contingent claims