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dc.contributor.authorRidder, Geerten_US
dc.contributor.authorVikström, Johanen_US
dc.description.abstractThis paper considers the definition and identification of treatment effects on conditional transition probabilities. We show that even under sequential random assignment only the instantaneous average treatment effect is point identified. Because treated and control units drop out at different rates, randomization only ensures the comparability of treatment and controls at the time of randomization, so that long run average treatment effects are not point identified. Instead we derive informative bounds on these average treatment effects. Our bounds do not impose (semi)parametric restrictions, as e.g. proportional hazards, that would narrow the bounds or even allow for point identification. We also explore various assumptions such as monotone treatment response, common shocks and positively correlated outcomes.en_US
dc.publisher|aInst. for Labour Market Policy Evaluation |cUppsalaen_US
dc.relation.ispartofseries|aWorking paper // IFAU - Institute for Labour Market Policy Evaluation |x2011:6en_US
dc.subject.keywordPartial identificationen_US
dc.subject.keywordduration modelen_US
dc.subject.keywordrandomized experimenten_US
dc.subject.keywordtreatment effecten_US
dc.titleBounds on treatment effects on transitionsen_US
dc.typeWorking Paperen_US

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