Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: http://hdl.handle.net/10419/37122
Authors: 
Gloede, Oliver
Menkhoff, Lukas
Year of Publication: 
2009
Series/Report no.: 
Discussion papers // School of Economics and Management of the Hanover Leibniz University 428
Abstract: 
This paper examines financial professionals' overconfidence in their forecasting performance. We are the first to compare individual financial professionals' self-ratings with their true forecasting performance. Data spans several years at monthly frequency. The forecasters in our sample do not provide feasible self-ratings compared to their true performance but show overconfidence on average. In analyzing this, we find an easing relation to experience. Job characteristics are also related to less overconfidence, such as being a fund manager and using fundamental analysis. The same effect is found for the attitude to herd, whereas recent forecasting success comes along with more overconfidence.
Subjects: 
overconfidence
self-rating
forecasting
foreign exchange
better-thanaverage
experience
performance
JEL: 
G1
D84
F31
Document Type: 
Working Paper

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