Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: https://hdl.handle.net/10419/340109 
Year of Publication: 
2026
Series/Report no.: 
Discussion Paper No. 2026/10
Publisher: 
Freie Universität Berlin, School of Business & Economics, Berlin
Abstract: 
This paper estimates the causal effect of renewable water conditions and water use on violent conflict in rural agrifood systems. We implement a fixed-effects instrumental variables strategy that uses plausibly exogenous temperature and precipitation shocks to instrument multiple water outcomes. Annual specifications are imprecise, but five-year aggregations yield sharper inference and show that higher renewable freshwater availability significantly reduces conflict risk. Water use margins are central: freshwater withdrawals are associated with lower conflict, whereas higher aggregate water-use efficiency is associated with increased conflict risk. Overall, the results indicate that climate-driven water shocks operate through distinct channels - stocks, withdrawals, and efficiency-and that empirical conclusions depend critically on time aggregation and the definition of water being instrumented. The findings imply that climate adaptation and water policy should be paired with conflict-sensitive governance and improved measurement of local water use and access.
Subjects: 
agrifood systems
hydro-climatic shocks
violent conflict
water-use efficiency
instrumental variables
JEL: 
Q25
Q15
D74
Q54
C26
Persistent Identifier of the first edition: 
Document Type: 
Working Paper

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