Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: https://hdl.handle.net/10419/339070 
Year of Publication: 
2025
Series/Report no.: 
Tinbergen Institute Discussion Paper No. TI 2025-066/V
Publisher: 
Tinbergen Institute, Amsterdam and Rotterdam
Abstract: 
Close to 20% of secondary school students in Amsterdam - and elsewhere - transfer between secondary schools at some point, even when initially placed in their most-preferred school. School switching is costly for the students involved and disrupts the learning environment of their former and new classmates. Using data from the Amsterdam secondary-school match linked to administrative registers, we show that switching can be predicted by hard-torationalize initial school choices. Over 60% of switchers can be correctly identified at the admission stage. Simulations indicate that encouraging predicted switchers to adjust their preference ranking of schools could reduce the switching rate by almost 15%.
Subjects: 
secondary education
school choice
school switching
admission lottery
JEL: 
I21
C35
C53
Document Type: 
Working Paper

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