Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: https://hdl.handle.net/10419/337470 
Authors: 
Year of Publication: 
2026
Series/Report no.: 
Discussion Paper No. 2026/4
Publisher: 
Freie Universität Berlin, School of Business & Economics, Berlin
Abstract: 
NATO enlargement and Russian annexation of Crimea marked crucial turning points. According to one narrative, the Russian occupation was part of a plan to re-establish dominion over Eastern Europe. According to a rival view, it was an attempt to counter a U.S. plan to subjugate Russia. I scrutinize the logical requirements of those narratives in a multi-stage game of incomplete information that produces equilibrium play such that first NATO is enlarged and then Russia attacks Ukraine. The two competing narratives correspond to two different separating equilibria. Conditions for their existence inform about the consistency and plausibility of the associated narratives.
Subjects: 
Ukraine war
NATO enlargement
incomplete information
JEL: 
H8
N4
Z1
Persistent Identifier of the first edition: 
Document Type: 
Working Paper

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