Bitte verwenden Sie diesen Link, um diese Publikation zu zitieren, oder auf sie als Internetquelle zu verweisen: https://hdl.handle.net/10419/336576 
Erscheinungsjahr: 
2025
Schriftenreihe/Nr.: 
Discussion Paper No. 526
Verlag: 
Ludwig-Maximilians-Universität München und Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin, Collaborative Research Center Transregio 190 - Rationality and Competition, München und Berlin
Zusammenfassung: 
We analyze how non-aligned countries affect welfare outcomes in scenarios of global trade fragmentation. Using a quantitative trade model covering 141 countries and 65 economic sectors, we simulate different scenarios of geoeconomic fragmentation. We find that major non-aligned countries benefit from their neutral position, with welfare gains of up to 0.7%. Their manufacturing sectors particularly benefit under incomplete fragmentation, experiencing value added gains of 2.5%, while agriculture and services face modest declines. These gains turn into significant losses if they join either the Western or Eastern trade bloc. Moreover, world welfare losses increase from -1.9% under incomplete fragmentation to -2.7% when non-aligned countries join the West and to -3.7% when they join the East. Our results highlight the strategic importance of non-aligned countries in mitigating the negative effects of global trade fragmentation.
Schlagwörter: 
Trade policy
gains from trade
global value chains
quantitative trade models
general equilibrium
JEL: 
F11
F13
F15
F17
F51
Dokumentart: 
Working Paper

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