Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: https://hdl.handle.net/10419/336150 
Year of Publication: 
2026
Citation: 
[Journal:] Wirtschaftsdienst [ISSN:] 1613-978X [Volume:] 106 [Issue:] 1 [Year:] 2026 [Pages:] 28-34
Publisher: 
Paradigm Publishing Services, Warsaw
Abstract: 
Vor dem Hintergrund der anhaltenden Wachstumsschwäche der deutschen Wirtschaft und einer alternden Bevölkerung ist es geboten, das bisher nicht genutzte Arbeitskräftepotenzial stärker in den Blick zu nehmen. Wir simulieren verschiedene Szenarien der Aktivierung der Nichterwerbstätigen unter 65 Jahren sowie zwischen 65 und 74 Jahren. Selbst bei Annahme einer moderaten Anzahl von Arbeitsstunden der aktivierten Personen wären die positiven Effekte auf den Staatshaushalt und die Steigerung des Bruttoinlandsprodukts erheblich.
Abstract (Translated): 
A key strategy to address Germany’s low growth potential and stretched fiscal position lies in tapping into the country’s dormant labour potential. This study illustrates the substantial macroeconomic and fiscal impacts of activating unused labour potential using SOEP data and the RWI’s EMSIM microsimulation model. Three scenarios are simulated with differing average weekly working hours for activated individuals. Each assumes the activation of 4.7 million non-employed individuals under 65. Additionally, labour force participation among people aged 65 to 74 is raised to levels observed in Sweden. Even modest activation leads to notable gains: GDP could rise by 8.3 to 12.3%, and annual net fiscal benefits range from 94 to 143 billion €. The findings suggest that mobilising dormant labour reserves could be a powerful strategy to strengthen economic resilience and public finances with relatively low policy costs.
JEL: 
R11
H41
H70
P16
Persistent Identifier of the first edition: 
Creative Commons License: 
cc-by Logo
Document Type: 
Article

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