The long-term consequences of the global 1918 influenza pandemic: A systematic analysis of census data from 51 countries

Abstract

Several country-level studies, including a prominent one for the United States, have identified long-term adverse effects of in-utero exposure to the 1918 influenza pandemic on economic outcomes. Although this pandemic was a global phenomenon, with an estimated 500 million people infected worldwide, no comprehensive global study on its long-term economic effects exists. We address this gap by systematically analyzing harmonized census data from 51 countries. Using the same empirical approach as previous studies, we find no evidence of consistent long-term effects on educational attainment and employment across countries. Overall, our results are difficult to reconcile with the view that in-utero exposure to the 1918 influenza pandemic was associated with systematic long-term adverse effects on economic outcomes at the population level. A comprehensive set of robustness checks do not alter this conclusion.