Abstract:
This Policy Brief examines economic experts' expectations about the macroeconomic effects of import tariffs and trade policy uncertainty, based on the 2025Q2 and 2025Q3 waves of the Economic Expert Survey (EES). The survey collected responses from over 600 economists across EU member states and more than 100 economists based in the United States, offering a comprehensive view of current expert assessments in a context of high global trade tensions. The results show that, in the short term, imposing a 10 percent import tariff is expected to reduce trade volumes and foreign direct investment, while raising inflation and unemployment. Over the medium and long term, experts anticipate that sustained tariffs have negative impacts on economic growth. The majority of respondents also report a high level of perceived trade policy uncertainty, which they also expect to dampen growth and firm investment. The findings highlight widespread concern among European economists about the economic costs of renewed protectionism and the uncertainty surrounding global trade policy. Elevated tariffs and policy uncertainty are seen as key risks to trade, investment, and growth in the EU, underscoring the importance of international cooperation and predictable trade policies.