Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: https://hdl.handle.net/10419/333461 
Year of Publication: 
2025
Series/Report no.: 
Graduate Institute of International and Development Studies Working Paper No. HEIDWP14-2025
Publisher: 
Graduate Institute of International and Development Studies, Geneva
Abstract: 
This paper estimates Ukraine's inflation attention threshold using a text-based proxy derived from the relative frequency of the word "inflation" in parliamentary speeches. During a relatively stable macroeconomic period between 2017 and 2022, the estimated threshold is approximately 9-10%. This finding aligns with results obtained using Google Trends data, where attention increased just prior to inflation reaching double-digit levels. Crucially, the parliamentary proxy also facilitates estimation for another stable period preceding the global financial crisis (2002-2007). The remarkably similar threshold estimates across both stable periods suggest that attention dynamics in Ukraine exhibit structural consistency under noncrisis conditions. These findings underscore the value of parliamentary speech analysis as a robust tool for tracking inflation salience in contexts with limited data availability.
Subjects: 
inflation
attention
parliamentary speeches
threshold regression
monetary policy
JEL: 
C82
D83
E31
E52
E71
Document Type: 
Working Paper

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