Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: https://hdl.handle.net/10419/331520 
Year of Publication: 
2025
Series/Report no.: 
ECIPE Occasional Paper No. 12/2025
Publisher: 
European Centre for International Political Economy (ECIPE), Brussels
Abstract: 
This paper examines whether non-binding ("soft") AI-related provisions in preferential trade agreements (PTAs) move trade and how their effects compare with binding ("hard") provisions. The motivation is straightforward: digital rules are spreading quickly, but legal enforceability is uneven. We ask whether non-binding instruments (standards work, data-innovation clauses, interoperability programmes) can deliver trade gains in AI-intensive sectors even without hard obligations. Drawing from TAPED AI-related provisions in PTAs, we construct a measure of AI-related depth, distinguishing binding from non-binding provisions. To identify where these rules should matter most, we interact agreement depth with a sectoral proxy for AI intensity based on firm adoption. We estimate a structural gravity model using PPML with exporter-year, importer-year, pair, and pair-trend fixed effects, and run extensive robustness checks including pooled sector interactions and leads/lags.
Subjects: 
Trade preferences
Artificial intelligence
Law enforcement
Foreign trade
World
Document Type: 
Research Report

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