Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: https://hdl.handle.net/10419/330432 
Year of Publication: 
2025
Citation: 
[Journal:] International Economics and Economic Policy [ISSN:] 1612-4812 [Volume:] 22 [Issue:] 4 [Article No.:] 64 [Publisher:] Springer [Place:] Berlin, Heidelberg [Year:] 2025
Publisher: 
Springer, Berlin, Heidelberg
Abstract: 
We show that increases in mortality rates causally raise the democracy index within countries, with effects that are robust and consistent across diverse country groups. This relationship is driven by unequal impacts of mortality on economically weaker segments of society, leaving behind a population with higher productivity and greater human capital. These shifts strongly support the mechanisms proposed by Modernization Theory. In extreme cases, elevated mortality can even trigger democratic transitions. Our findings emphasize that changes in health conditions produce distributional effects that reshape political landscapes globally, highlighting the significant role of demographic shocks in political development.
Subjects: 
Development
Modernization theory
Human capital
Productivity
Democratization
Instrumental variable
JEL: 
I15
D7
O10
C26
Persistent Identifier of the first edition: 
Creative Commons License: 
cc-by Logo
Document Type: 
Article
Document Version: 
Published Version

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