Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: https://hdl.handle.net/10419/330224 
Year of Publication: 
2025
Citation: 
[Journal:] Food Security [ISSN:] 1876-4525 [Volume:] 17 [Issue:] 5 [Publisher:] Springer Netherlands [Place:] Dordrecht [Year:] 2025 [Pages:] 1257-1271
Publisher: 
Springer Netherlands, Dordrecht
Abstract: 
Utilizing the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) in the error correction model, we examine the effects of weather anomalies on wheat prices in six wheat-producing regions in Russia. Our analysis reveals that weather-induced price effects are most pronounced in regions most distant from the world market, particularly those primarily producing spring wheat for domestic consumption. These findings are corroborated by a model that incorporates precipitation data and partially supported by a model that uses maximum temperature as an alternative measure for weather extremes. The absence of significant weather impacts on wheat prices in the exporting North Caucasus region likely reflects the region's advanced production systems and modern management practices. Since Russia's invasion of Ukraine, the profitability of wheat production for Russian farmers has declined substantially, leading to reduced use of agricultural inputs. If this trend of low input application continues, weather fluctuations could have a more pronounced impact on wheat prices.
Subjects: 
NDVI
Weather anomalies
Wheat prices
Russia
Food security
Inputs
War in  Ukraine
Persistent Identifier of the first edition: 
Creative Commons License: 
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Document Type: 
Article
Document Version: 
Published Version

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