Abstract:
This policy brief examines European and US economic expertsʼ expectations and recommendations for tariffs on US, EU, and global imports at the end of 2025, as collected in the latest wave (2025Q2) of the Economic Expert Survey. The results show that economic experts in Europe expect particularly high tariff rates on US imports. By contrast, the tariff rates on US imports recommended by European experts are significantly lower but also vary greatly across European countries. US experts also expect higher tariffs on EU imports but overwhelmingly recommend a free-trade approach with minimal tariffs. Tariff expectations of European experts on imports from all countries are generally lower and less heterogeneous than those for US imports. Normative recommendations for tariff rates on all imports are even more moderate. The findings highlight ongoing challenges in the EUʼs ability to form a unified trade policy amid diverse national perspectives, especially in the context of rising global protectionism and recent protectionism by the United States. The persistent gap between expected and recommended tariff levels on both sides of the Atlantic underscores the difficulty of reconciling economic advice with current political realities and signals potential risks for the stability of global trade relations.