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https://hdl.handle.net/10419/324445
Autor:innen:
Erscheinungsjahr:
2025
Schriftenreihe/Nr.:
OIES Paper: NG No. 199
Verlag:
The Oxford Institute for Energy Studies, Oxford
Zusammenfassung:
In May 2025, the European Commission published a Roadmap outlining various measures aimed at phasing out all Russian pipeline gas and LNG imports into the EU. It was followed by a legislative Proposal in June, which stipulates firm prohibitions on importing Russian gas and providing long-term LNG terminal services to Russian customers to apply, as a general rule, from 1 January 2026, with transitional allowances for existing contracts up to January 2028. The Proposal introduces comprehensive transparency and traceability requirements, enabling the Commission's access to the full text of Russian gas supply contracts while also and obliging importers to provide customs authorities with evidence of non-Russian gas origin, with risk of entry refusal if evidence is deemed inconclusive. While strengthening oversight over Russian gas imports, it places a significant burden on importers and other stakeholders, while risking regulatory overreach and potentially increasing costs and preventing legitimate gas imports. The Proposal also places an obligation on Member States to develop National Diversification Plans by March 2026, outlining Russian gas phase-out measures but the Proposal lacks a mechanism for resolving likely disagreements between the EC and the Member States thus leaving the EC to balance the interests of the EU and the Member States in line with the energy solidarity principle. This is likely to be difficult. The regulatory shift creates legal ambiguity, particularly regarding the use of force majeure and contract termination clauses. The Proposal does not guarantee that an import ban will be accepted as force majeure under the relevant contract, exposing buyers to potential claims for damages or ongoing obligations under long-term Russian gas and LNG deals, even after the EU ban is in effect. The phase-out of Russian gas is expected to be manageable for markets, mainly due to increasing Turkish and Romanian production and access to alternative LNG sources and will have only limited impact on prices according to our modeling. However stringent molecule-tracking provisions risk further complications. Overall , the Proposal marks the most decisive move towards phasing out Russian gas to date, but may become a roadblock rather than a roadmap towards a Russian gas-free future. It risks undermining the commercial and legal positions of European gas importers, places additional financial and administrative burdens on them and places energy solidarity amongst the Member States under strain. It is not obvious that it is worth taking this risk to discontinue modest volumes of Russian gas in the EU post-2027 under existing contracts.
Schlagwörter:
Contracts
Crisis
EC
force majeure
Governance
import ban
national diversification plans
phase-out
proposal
roadmap
Russia
Security of supply
traceability
transparency
Crisis
EC
force majeure
Governance
import ban
national diversification plans
phase-out
proposal
roadmap
Russia
Security of supply
traceability
transparency
ISBN:
978-1-78467-276-8
Dokumentart:
Working Paper
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