Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: https://hdl.handle.net/10419/324383 
Authors: 
Year of Publication: 
2025
Series/Report no.: 
OIES Paper: CE No. 16
Publisher: 
The Oxford Institute for Energy Studies, Oxford
Abstract: 
China's manufacturing capabilities and advancements in reducing electrolyzer costs have sparked both hopes and concerns about its potential to dominate global electrolyzer production and exports. This is often compared to China's success in solar photovoltaics (PV), where dramatic cost reductions and subsequent control over supply chains have established its leadership in the sector. This paper explores whether China can replicate its success in solar with electrolyzers, considering government support, learning rates of PV and electrolyzers, Chinese corporate strategies, and the external environment for exports. The paper argues that even though China's mature systems of manufacturing innovation and government support have enabled significant cost reductions for alkaline electrolyzers, and made it possible for Chinese manufacturers to catch up in proton exchange membrane (PEM) electrolyzers, they cannot guarantee dominance in global electrolyzer supply chains. This is because of the unique manufacturing characteristics of electrolyzers, uncertain prices for renewable hydrogen and the growing trend of trade protectionism.
Subjects: 
China
Electrolyzers
Exports
green hydrogen
Hydrogen
Learning rates
solar PV
Supply Chains
ISBN: 
978-1-78467-264-5
Document Type: 
Working Paper

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