Zusammenfassung:
More than three years after Russia invaded Ukraine in February 2022, some of its global spillover effects continue to impact many low-income and lower-middle-income countries (LICs and LMICs). As the world faces new global shocks - such as aid cuts and rising US tariffs - this synthesis report draws lessons from Africa's experience during the Russia-Ukraine war to help navigate external shocks. The report finds that while the overall price shocks from the war at the continental level remain relatively low (around 0.2% of GDP), growth impacts vary significantly across countries depending on their exposure and level of resilience (e.g., policy space) to mitigate the impact of the shock. African countries that are heavily reliant on commodity imports, more integrated into global financial markets (e.g. with high levels of private capital flows and external debt), and already facing fiscal and debt vulnerabilities, have experienced more negative economic and social consequences. Within countries, the impacts have also varied, with women disproportionately affected in areas such as food security and access to clean energy. Policy interventions matter, but they come with trade-offs. Throughout the conflict, several African countries implemented monetary policy tightening to curb inflation, which, while necessary, led to higher borrowing costs that may have held back investment. Prioritising interest payments to avoid debt distress has often come at the expense of social spending. Additionally, many macroeconomic interventions - such as liquidity easing and cash transfers - have tended to benefit men more than women, further entrenching gender inequalities. The report offers several key policy levers to enhance Africa's resilience against future shocks, including: - Strengthening the capacity of central banks through well-managed sovereign wealth funds. - Utilising innovative debt instruments to address debt sustainability and close development finance gaps. - Integrating gender perspectives into shock recovery policies of central banks and ministries. - Fostering intra-African trade, regional industrialisation, regional funds and early warning systems. - Utilising international mechanisms for counter-cyclical financing, debt relief and blended finance.