Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: https://hdl.handle.net/10419/318391 
Authors: 
Year of Publication: 
2025
Citation: 
[Journal:] Journal of Economic Psychology [ISSN:] 1872-7719 [Volume:] 108 [Article No.:] 102816 [Publisher:] Elsevier [Place:] Amsterdam [Year:] 2025 [Pages:] 1-8
Publisher: 
Elsevier, Amsterdam
Abstract: 
Conflicting evidence exists regarding a first-mover advantage in soccer shootouts, where increased pressure on second-moving teams may lead to choking. While some studies support this claim, others refute it, with the lack of consensus likely due to limited sample sizes. An analysis of around 7,000 soccer penalty shootouts and 74,000 kicks finds no evidence of a first- or second-mover advantage in winning probability. Equivalence testing further rejects any deviation greater than 1.8 percentage points from a 50% win probability for first-kicking teams. A parallel analysis of ice hockey shootouts finds no significant advantage or disadvantage for either the first- or second-moving team.
Subjects: 
First-mover advantage
Choking
Soccer
Penalty-shootout
Ice hockey
JEL: 
Z20
D91
J01
L83
Persistent Identifier of the first edition: 
Creative Commons License: 
cc-by Logo
Document Type: 
Article
Document Version: 
Published Version

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