Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: https://hdl.handle.net/10419/307465 
Year of Publication: 
2024
Series/Report no.: 
Working Paper No. 28.2024
Publisher: 
Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei (FEEM), Milano
Abstract: 
We study the implications of post-treatment bias in the context of the globalization backlash. We discuss whether horse-race regressions can inform about the relative role of economic vs. cultural drivers. We make three methodological points: (1) if and insofar as cultural variables are post-treatment with respect to economic factors, the estimates of the effect of economic shocks on voting are biased in regressions that include cultural controls (and vice versa); (2) for the same reason, such horse-race regressions do not allow to accurately estimate the relative role of economic vs. cultural factors; (3) one cannot infer mediation effects from changes in regression coefficients for a given factor of interest before and after including post-treatment controls. We accompany the methodological discussion with empirical evidence on the relevance of post-treatment bias in studies of the globalization backlash, both by replicating and expanding on earlier studies, and by presenting novel cross-country results on the culture-economy nexus.
Subjects: 
Globalization backlash
populism
radical right
post-treatment bias
causal mediation analysis
JEL: 
F1
F5
Document Type: 
Working Paper

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