Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: https://hdl.handle.net/10419/296277 
Year of Publication: 
2022
Citation: 
[Journal:] Quantitative Economics [ISSN:] 1759-7331 [Volume:] 13 [Issue:] 1 [Year:] 2022 [Pages:] 355-385
Publisher: 
The Econometric Society, New Haven, CT
Abstract: 
We investigate if, and why, an initial success can trigger a string of successes. Using random variations in success in a real-effort laboratory experiment, we cleanly identify the causal effect of an early success in a competition. We confirm that an early success indeed leads to increased chances of a later success. By alternatively eliminating strategic features of the competition, we turn on and off possible mechanisms driving the effect of an early success. Standard models of dynamic contest predict a strategic effect due to asymmetric incentives between initial winners and losers. Surprisingly, we find no evidence that they can explain the positive effect of winning. Instead, we find that the effect of winning seems driven by an information revelation effect, whereby players update their beliefs about their relative strength after experiencing an initial success.
Subjects: 
confidence
Dynamic contest
experiment
feedback
momentum
real effort
Dynamic contest
momentum
real effort
feedback
confidence
experiment
JEL: 
C91
D74
Persistent Identifier of the first edition: 
Creative Commons License: 
cc-by-nc Logo
Document Type: 
Article

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