Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: https://hdl.handle.net/10419/284016 
Year of Publication: 
2023
Series/Report no.: 
Staff Report No. 1056
Publisher: 
Federal Reserve Bank of New York, New York, NY
Abstract: 
In addition to realized earnings and employment shocks, forward-looking individuals are presumed to condition their consumption and labor supply decisions on their subjective beliefs about future labor market risks. This paper analyzes these perceptions of earnings and employment risks using rich monthly panel data. It documents considerable individual heterogeneity in expected earnings growth and earnings growth uncertainty and in the perceived likelihood of a voluntary and involuntary job exit. We examine how these expectations evolve over the working life and the business cycle, and how they co-vary with expectations about the macro economy. Our analysis provides novel evidence on the perceived persistence in earnings growth shocks and on the association between future earnings and spending growth.
Subjects: 
expectations data
beliefs
household surveys
strategic survey questions
labor market uncertainty
wage persistence
JEL: 
D84
D81
J31
J63
D12
C23
Document Type: 
Working Paper

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