Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: https://hdl.handle.net/10419/282627 
Year of Publication: 
2023
Series/Report no.: 
IZA Discussion Papers No. 16500
Publisher: 
Institute of Labor Economics (IZA), Bonn
Abstract: 
High-income countries have generally experienced falling fertility in recent decades. In most of these countries, the total fertility rate is now below the level that implies a stable population in the long run. This has led to concerns among economists, policymakers, and the wider public about the economic consequences of low fertility and population decline. In this contribution, we aim to i) describe the main determinants of low fertility in high-income countries, ii) assess its potential economic consequences, iii) discuss adjustment mechanisms for individuals and economies, iv) propose a simple economic framework to analyze the long-run economic impact of low fertility, and v) draw lessons for economic policymakers to react appropriately. While the economic challenges of low fertility are substantial, a thoughtful and consistent policy response can mitigate most of the adverse consequences.
Subjects: 
low fertility
below replacement fertility
depopulation
economic consequences of population decline
long-run economic growth
economic policies to address low fertility
JEL: 
J11
J13
O11
Document Type: 
Working Paper

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