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Erscheinungsjahr: 
2023
Schriftenreihe/Nr.: 
AWI Discussion Paper Series No. 727
Verlag: 
University of Heidelberg, Department of Economics, Heidelberg
Zusammenfassung: 
In density forecasts, respondents are asked to assign probabilities to a response scale with pre-specified ranges of inflation. In two large-scale experiments, one conducted in the US and one in Germany, we show how the specifics of the response scale determine the responses: Shifting, compressing, or expanding the scale leads to shifted, compressed, and expanded forecasts. Mean forecast, uncertainty, and disagreement vary by several percentage points. The findings have implications for survey design and for central banks' optimal adjustment of the response scales during times of high inflation.
Schlagwörter: 
Inflation
density forecast
experiment
survey
JEL: 
C83
D84
E31
Persistent Identifier der Erstveröffentlichung: 
Dokumentart: 
Working Paper

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