Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: https://hdl.handle.net/10419/278166 
Year of Publication: 
2022
Series/Report no.: 
Working Paper No. 22.02R
Publisher: 
Swiss National Bank, Study Center Gerzensee, Gerzensee
Abstract: 
We document whether a simple, univariate model for quarterly GDP growth is able to deliver forecasts of yearly GDP growth in a crisis period like the Covid19 pandemic, which may serve cross-checking forecasts obtained from elaborate and expert models used by forecasting institutions. We include shocks to the log number of short-time workers as timely available current-quarter indicator. Yearly GDP growth forecasts serve cross-checking, in particular at the outbreak of the pandemic.
Subjects: 
Bayesian analysis
Covid-19
pseudo real-time
ordinances
SECO
KOF
JEL: 
C32
C53
E23
E27
Document Type: 
Working Paper

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