Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: https://hdl.handle.net/10419/278158 
Year of Publication: 
2022
Series/Report no.: 
Working Paper No. 22.04
Publisher: 
Swiss National Bank, Study Center Gerzensee, Gerzensee
Abstract: 
This paper empirically examines the effect of population growth on real interest rates. Although this effect is well founded in macroeconomic theory, the corresponding empirical results have been rather tenuous. Demographic interest rate theories are typically based on long-term relationships across generations. Accordingly, key population trends appear often only across decades, if not centuries, worth of data. To capture these trends, we distinguish between population growth resulting from a birth surplus and net migration. Within a panel covering 12 countries and the years since 1820, we find robust evidence that the birth surplus significantly affects the real interest rate.
Subjects: 
demographics
demographic transition
population growth
real interest rate
JEL: 
E43
E52
J11
Document Type: 
Working Paper

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