Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: https://hdl.handle.net/10419/266451 
Year of Publication: 
2022
Series/Report no.: 
CEPIE Working Paper No. 03/22
Publisher: 
Technische Universität Dresden, Center of Public and International Economics (CEPIE), Dresden
Abstract: 
We study the impact of US presidential election TV debates on intraday exchange rates of 96 currencies from 1996 to 2016. Expectations about protectionist measures are the main transmission channel of debate outcomes. Currencies of countries with high levels of bilateral foreign trade with the US depreciate if the election probability of the protectionist candidate increases during the debate. We rationalize our results in a model where a debate victory of a protectionist candidate raises expectations about future tariffs and reduces future net exports to the US, resulting in relative depreciation of currencies with high bilateral trade integration.
Subjects: 
Exchange Rates
US Presidential Elections
TV Debates
Protectionism
Bilateral Trade Integration
JEL: 
F31
G15
G14
D72
Persistent Identifier of the first edition: 
Document Type: 
Working Paper

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