Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: https://hdl.handle.net/10419/266062 
Year of Publication: 
2021
Series/Report no.: 
UPSE Discussion Paper No. 2021-08
Publisher: 
University of the Philippines, School of Economics (UPSE), Quezon City
Abstract: 
This short piece discusses the results of simple regression analysis using cross country data to determine the factors that have influenced fluctuations in real output during the covid-19 pandemic period. Focus is on explaining not only output growth from 2020 to the first half of 2021, but also the length or duration of recessions. The most prominent factors influencing growth include the ability of a country to contain the spread of infections and vaccinate their population. The size of the covid19-induced fiscal stimulus, also matters, especially health care spending. However, the relationship is nonlinear. Beyond a certain point, fiscal spending leads to lower quarterly growth. Policy recommendations are given.
Subjects: 
Economic growth
fiscal policy
government expenditures
covid19
crisis management
JEL: 
E6
E62
E65
H11
H12
H51
I18
Document Type: 
Working Paper

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