Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: https://hdl.handle.net/10419/258158 
Year of Publication: 
2021
Citation: 
[Journal:] Risks [ISSN:] 2227-9091 [Volume:] 9 [Issue:] 4 [Article No.:] 69 [Publisher:] MDPI [Place:] Basel [Year:] 2021 [Pages:] 1-17
Publisher: 
MDPI, Basel
Abstract: 
This work aims to verify an authorial forecasting method from a system of interdependent equations, which is based on empirical equations of the structural form and is mainly intended for econometric micromodels. The prediction procedure will be analogous to the so-called chain prediction that is used for recursive models. The difference-compared with the prediction from a recursive model-entails the necessity of using one of the reduced-form empirical equations to begin the procedure of constructing a sequence of forecasts from successive structural-form empirical equations. The research results presented above indicate that the above-proposed iterative forecasting method from structural-form equations of a system of interdependent equations guarantees synchronization of forecasts as part of a closed cycle of relations. A different number of iterations is required to obtain convergent forecasts. It can be noticed that the further ahead the forecasted period is, the more iterations should be carried out to obtain convergent forecasts. Small business management with the use of forecasting can be done remotely. Rapid updates of statistical information will require cloud-based communication. Completion of data in a cloud will allow, on one hand, accurate assessment of expired forecasts and, on the other, to update the predictor equations. This can be carried out at any place with Internet access.
Subjects: 
econometric forecasting
econometric micromodel
small business management
small industrial enterprise
synchronization of forecasts
JEL: 
C30
C32
D24
Persistent Identifier of the first edition: 
Creative Commons License: 
cc-by Logo
Document Type: 
Article
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