Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: https://hdl.handle.net/10419/258030 
Year of Publication: 
2020
Citation: 
[Journal:] Risks [ISSN:] 2227-9091 [Volume:] 8 [Issue:] 3 [Article No.:] 77 [Publisher:] MDPI [Place:] Basel [Year:] 2020 [Pages:] 1-8
Publisher: 
MDPI, Basel
Abstract: 
We present a statistical model which can be employed to understand the contagion dynamics of the COVID-19, which can heavily impact health, economics and finance. The model is a Poisson autoregression of the daily new observed cases, and can reveal whether contagion has a trend, and where is each country on that trend. Model results are exemplified from some observed series.
Subjects: 
poisson autoregressive models
contagion
predictive monitoring
Persistent Identifier of the first edition: 
Creative Commons License: 
cc-by Logo
Document Type: 
Article
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